Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?

Related deadlines / outcomes

• <100 Will fewer than 100 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? 0% Yes
• 100–129 Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? 0% Yes
• 130–159 Will 130 to 159 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? 0% Yes
• 160–189 Will 160 to 189 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? 0% Yes
• 190–219 Will 190 to 219 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? 0% Yes
• 220–249 Will 220 to 249 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? 0% Yes
• 250–279 Will 250 to 279 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? 0% Yes
• 280–310 Will 280 to 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026? 0% Yes

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.